[RSCT] Will This Election be Stolen?

[Bob Peterson]

Folks,
 From Rico Gutstein who asked me to forward this.
Bob Peterson

Will This Presidential Election Be Stolen? It Didn’t Happen By Chance…
  We are seniors at the Social Justice High School in Chicago, and in  
our math class, we have been working to understand whether or not  
something went wrong in the 2004 presidential election. We have used  
statistics, facts, and formulas to demonstrate that some of the  
election results did not happen by chance. During our analyses, we  
discovered that the differences between the exit polls (random  
confidential surveys done immediately after voting) and the recorded  
votes did not match. Although we expect some differences, due to  
sample variation, the numbers were mathematically improbable or  
basically impossible!
  Exit poll results should be close to the recorded vote (as they  
have been in past elections). When this is not the case, we have a  
“poll difference” between the two. There is a 50/50 chance that the  
difference will favor one candidate or the other. We would have  
expected some to favor Bush and some to favor Kerry. But, according  
to Steven Freeman in his book, “Was the 2004 Presidential Election  
Stolen,” in the 10 battleground states, all 10 differences favored  
Bush. The chances of that happening are about 1 in 1,000. And across  
the US, in all 50 exit polls, 44 of the differences favored Bush, and  
only 6 favored Kerry. The chance of that happening is about 1 in  
71,000,000—very close to zero. Our last point is that in Ohio, Kerry  
won the exit poll with 54.2%. But, as Freeman reports, in the actual  
vote, he only won 48.7%. The chance of that happening is about 1 in  
1,000,000,000. Possible? You decide!


We do not know exactly what happened to explain why the exit polls  
were so far off in 2004. But we know that in the 2004 election, there  
were reports of votes flipping from Kerry to Bush,  
“undervotes” (where people did not vote for president but voted for  
other positions), polling stations with more votes counted than  
people registered, and many other very strange things with the  
electronic voting machines. We also know that there were fliers with  
false information about when to vote, long lines, not enough  
machines, and voter suppression.


Some of us are 18 and are voting for the first time. As first time  
voters, we cannot stress enough how important it is to be educated  
about the past elections and the things that went wrong. Our class is  
writing this to inform everyone about previous problems in the  
elections and to warn people to watch for similar troubles. We want  
to ensure that in this election, the same problems do not occur. We  
are already seeing problems with voting this year. Be prepared to  
pressure your representatives and senators to immediately investigate  
and challenge the election if something appears wrong!


In this election, it is up to all of us to question the results and  
to hold officials accountable for fairness. If the vote changes on  
the electronic machine, call for assistance. Let your vote be counted  
for the candidate of your choice. Let your voice be heard, and don’t  
settle for less!


Remember—it didn’t happen by chance!


On behalf of our math class, Channing Redditt and Amy Maldonado.

Chicago, Illinois
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